Hydropower development in the lower Mekong basin: alternative approaches to deal with uncertainty

Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. As a means of comparing these trade-offs, a sensitivity analysis of the benefit-cost analysis of certain Basin Development Plan (BDP) scenarios was undertaken. By changing some key assumptions in the BDP about discount rates, the value of lost capture fisheries, future aquaculture production in the LMB, and the value of lost ecosystem services from wetlands to reflect the full range of uncertainty, at the extremes, there could be a reversal of the Net Present Value (NPV) estimates of the scenarios from a positive $33 billion to negative $274 billion. This report recommends when dealing with large-scale, complex projects: a more comprehensive, integrated human and natural systems framework and adaptive management approach to LMB planning and development that deals with the entire watershed; a more comprehensive analysis and treatment of risk and uncertainty; a more thorough assessment of the value of direct and indirect ecosystem services; a broader set of scenarios that embody alternative models of development, broader stakeholder participation; and better treatment of the effects of infrastructure construction on local cultures and the poor.     

The role of canopy structural complexity in wood net primary production of a maturing northern deciduous forest

The even-aged northern hardwood forests of the Upper Great Lakes Region are undergoing an ecological transition during which structural and biotic complexity is increasing. Early-successional aspen (Populus spp.) and birch (Betula papyrifera) are senescing at an accelerating rate and are being replaced by middle-successional species including northern red oak (Quercus rubra), red maple (Acer rubrum), and white pine (Pinus strobus). Canopy structural complexity may increase due to forest age, canopy disturbances, and changing species diversity. More structurally complex canopies may enhance carbon (C) sequestration in old forests. We hypothesize that these biotic and structural alterations will result in increased structural complexity of the maturing canopy with implications for forest C uptake. At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS), we combined a decade of observations of net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI), site index, canopy tree-species diversity, and stand age with canopy structure measurements made with portable canopy lidar (PCL) in 30 forested plots. We then evaluated the relative impact of stand characteristics on productivity through succession using data collected over a nine-year period. We found that effects of canopy structural complexity on wood NPP (NPPw) were similar in magnitude to the effects of total leaf area and site quality. Furthermore, our results suggest that the effect of stand age on NPPw is mediated primarily through its effect on canopy structural complexity. Stand-level diversity of canopy-tree species was not significantly related to either canopy structure or NPPw. We conclude that increasing canopy structural complexity provides a mechanism for the potential maintenance of productivity in aging forests.     

Translocation of Sb and Ti in an undisturbed floodplain soil after application of Sb2O3 and TiO2 nanoparticles to the surface

The pore water transport of antimony and titanium, applied as nanoparticles (NPs), was studied by spiking stable suspensions of two different nanomaterials on the surface of an undisturbed floodplain soil. For preparation of stable dispersions, two different strategies were followed. (i) Comparable to those used in industrial applications: titanium dioxide nanoparticles, with an average diameter of 99 nm, were prepared by high-energy ball milling in water, whereas for (ii) antimony trioxide (Sb(2)O(3); average diameter 121 nm) a dispersing agent (sodium salt of poly[(naphthaleneformaldehyde)sulfonate] (pNFS) in water) was used. The upper 17 cm of a floodplain soil (river Rhine, Germany) was sampled using the minimally invasive sediment or fauna incubation experiment (SOFIE? two compartment cell; 3 l volume each), which preserved the pore system of the soil. The cells were equipped with 450 and 100 nm filter probes at different depths providing a non-invasive sampling of the pore water. The pore water was sampled at different times (T = 0, 24, 48, 96 and 196 h) and analysed by inductively coupled plasma quadrupole mass spectrometry (ICP-QMS). Sb and Ti were transported via the pore water of the floodplain soil to a depth of 14 cm, corresponding to the maximum cell depth. The highest Sb concentration in the pore water was detected after 24 h at a depth of 5.5-8 cm. Although the spiked concentration was higher for Ti than for Sb, the total Ti concentration in the pore water of the spiked cell was lower. This indicates a stronger agglomeration of TiO(2) NPs or a more intensive interaction of Ti with the solid matrix and a faster transport of Sb towards deeper soil layers. The results show that metal(loid)s from metal oxide NPs are transported in the soil pore water and, hence, have the potential to act as the source of contamination of deeper soil layers after soil surface contamination.     

Is the first-trimester combined screening result associated with the phenotype of Down syndrome? A population-based cohort study

Objective

To investigate if the Down syndrome phenotype differs according to the result of first-trimester combined screening (FTS).

Method

We included all Down syndrome cases diagnosed by karyotype in pregnancy or after birth in Denmark during 2005–2018. We compared screen positive (odds ≥1:300) and screen negative (odds <1:300) cases as well as screen result subgroups with respect to anthropometrics, congenital malformations, childhood diseases, and hospitalization.

Results

Absolute measures of fetal and birth anthropometrics were comparable between groups. A prenatal malformation diagnosis was more prevalent among screen positive than screen negative cases. Analyses suggested that this could reflect a detection bias. Cases with a screen result of 1:2–1:10 had a higher probability of being diagnosed with a malformation prenatally and with severe congenital heart disease (CHD) postnatally compared with a result of 1:11–1:300. Screen positive cases more often had non-severe CHD but less often a non-heart malformation compared with screen negative cases, while proportions of severe CHD were similar in these groups. Data on hospitalizations showed inconsistent results.

Conclusion

The 1:300 screening threshold had limited or no value in predicting Down syndrome phenotype severity. In contrast, cases with a screen result between 1:2 and 1:10 may represent a more severe phenotype.     

Melt Processing of a New Biodegradable Synthetic Polymer in High-Speed Spinning and Underpressure Spunbonding Process

A new biodegradable synthetic polyesteramid (PEA) was characterized by means of thermogravimetry (TG) differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and dynamic rheological measurements. Two glass transition ranges at about –33 and 38°C and a melting enthalpy of 33 J/g were measured, indicating that PEA is an immiscible blend of two components with a small crystalline part. The material was spun in a high-speed spinning process within the range of 2,000–6,000 M/min and an underpressure spunbonding process within the range of 3,600–7,700 M/min. The textile physical properties of the fibers were 100 MPa tenacity at an elongation at break of 30%, and an E-modulus of 0.5 GPa. The mass per unit area of the spunbonded nonwovens ranged from 70–159 g/M ². The strength of the spunbonded nonwovens was 28–51 N and 42–74 N in machine and cross direction, respectively. The air permeability of the nonwovens decreased at high air velocities and more fineness of the filaments from 1240–380 l/M ² s.     

Repeatability,Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Analyses of the BANCS Model Developed to Predict Annual Streambank Erosion Rates

Accelerated streambank erosion caused by channel instability can be the leading cause of sediment impairment of streams. Obtaining accurate streambank erosion rates for sediment budgeting and prioritizing mitigation efforts can be difficult and costly. One approach to quantifying streambank erosion rates is through the development and implementation of an empirically derived “Bank Assessment for Non‐point Source Consequences of Sediment” (BANCS) model. This study aims to improve the BANCS model application by evaluating repeatability between users and identifying sensitive and/or uncertain model inputs. Statistical analysis of streambank evaluations conducted by 10 different individuals suggests the implementation of the BANCS model may not be repeatable. This finding may be due to sensitive model inputs, such as streambank height and near‐bank stress level prediction method selection, and/or uncertain model inputs, such as bank material identification and the associated adjustment of erosion potential. Furthermore, it was found assessing streambanks as a group by obtaining a measure of central tendency from individual evaluations, as well as obtaining a higher level of training, may improve model implementation precision. Application of these suggestions may result in improved prediction of streambank erosion rates utilizing the BANCS model methodology.     

Evaluation of lime requirement tests for minesoils

Evaluation of twelve minesoils collected from restored or abandoned surface mines in eastern Kentucky with six standard lime requirement procedures showed that one of the procedures accurately forecasted long term lime requirements. The minesoils were then evaluated for potassium choloride-extractable aluminum using the Yang exchangeable acidity procedure. When the extractable A1³⁺ was multiplied by a factor of 2.24 it was found to also be an accurate measure for longterm limestone requirements. To bring the minesoil to pH 5.5 the results obtained using the modified Yuan procedure indicate that for each MEQ Al³⁺ extracted per 100 grams of minesoil 2.24 Mg of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) equivalent lime per hectare be applied. Application of lime based on this procedure and one of the standard lime procedures resulted in pH stability of the minesoils for forty months.     

A model for within-group coalitionary aggression among males

Perhaps the most common form of cooperation among primates is the formation of coalitions. Competition among males within a group concerns a constant quantity of the limiting resource (fertilizations). Contest competition over fertilizations is known to produce payoffs that are distributed according to the priority-of-access model, and hence show an exponential decline in payoff with rank. We develop a model for rank-changing, within-group coalitions among primate males. For these coalitions to occur, they must be both profitable (i.e. improve fitness) for all coalition members and feasible (i.e. be able to beat the targets). We assume that the value of the coalition is the sum of the payoffs of the partners in their original ranks. We distinguish three basic coalition configurations, depending on the dominance ranks of the coalition partners relative to their target. We predict five basic coalition types. First, all-up, rank-changing coalitions targeting individuals ranking above all coalition partners; these are expected to involve coalition partners ranking just below their target, concern top rank, and be small, just two or three animals. Second, bridging, rank-changing coalitions, where higher-rankers support lower-rankers to rise to a rank below themselves; these are expected to be most common where a high-ranking male in a despotic system can support a low-ranking relative. Third, bridging non-rank-changing coalitions; these are expected to be common whenever high-ranking males have low-ranking close relatives. Fourth, non-rank-changing coalitions by high-rankers against lower-ranking targets; these are expected to serve to counteract or prevent the first type. Fifth, non-rank-changing, leveling coalitions, in which all partners rank below their target and which flatten the payoff distribution; these are expected to be large and mainly involve lower-ranking males. Bridging, rank-changing coalitions are expected in situations where contest is strong, all-up rank-changing coalitions where contest is intermediate, and leveling coalitions where contest is weak. We review the empirical patterns found among primates. The strong predictions of the model are confirmed by observational data on male-male coalitions in primates.